April 5, 2012

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop down two million tonnes due to drought

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop season shrunk to an estimated 65.2 million tonnes, down nearly two million tonnes from the March forecast of 67.1 million tonnes due to drought, local crop analysts Agroconsult said Tuesday (Apr 3).

That projection was one of the lowest among recent forecasts, and well below Brazil's record soy harvest of 75.3 million tonnes last season. Drought over Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay has supported soy futures prices in Chicago since December.

Thanks to strong exports of the 2010/11 crop late last year, Brazil could still displace the US as the largest exporter of soy, one of the world's most important sources of protein.

The latest forecast was the culmination of crop tours by several teams which covered 60,000 kilometres (37,300 miles) of Brazil's grain belt in the past several weeks.

Agroconsult's lead analyst, Andre Pessoa, said Brazil's corn crop may surpass the country's soy output this year. He cited expectations for greater area and good yields from the second, or winter, corn crop that is now winding down planting.

Agroconsult forecast Brazil's total corn output this year at 64.6 million tonnes, up from the 63.7 million tonnes it projected in March.

Brazil has become the world's third largest exporter of corn in recent years, shipping around 8-10 million tonnes annually.

Agroconsult's soy forecast was one of the lowest of recent estimates. See a FACTBOX on recent Brazilian soy forecasts with links to stories:

Pessoa said that Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's third largest soy state by production, was the worst hit by the drought that started over the grain belt in November.