April 5, 2007

 

Russian 2007/08 grain exports seen up

 

 

Russia's grain exports in the 2007/08 crop year starting on July 1 may be higher than in the current season and reach 13 million tonnes, a leading analyst and top grain trader said.

 

Dmitry Rylko, general director of the independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), estimated on Wednesday that exports this year may be as high as 12 to 13 million tonnes, of which 10.5 to 11.0 million tonnes will be wheat. 

 

He estimated exports in the current 2006/07 season at 11.5 million tonnes.

 

Russia expects to harvest no less grain this year than the 78.6 million tonnes gathered in 2006.

 

Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev has said a more precise crop forecast may be available in mid-April.

 

Wheat may rise to 47-48 million tonnes from 45 million in 2006.

 

Winter grains have been sown on 14.2 million hectares. Last year they were sown on 14.4 million hectares, but they survived only on 11.2 million after unusually heavy frosts.

 

Last year total grains area including the surviving winter grains and the area resown in spring was 43.8 million hectares.

 

The government has also warned that unusually warm weather this season had created conditions for the spread of pests, which might cause significant damage to crops.

 

Nikolai Demyanov, commercial director of the International Grain Company, a Russian subsidiary of commodities trader Glencore and the country's top grain exporter this season, said he expected Russia's wheat exports to rise to 11 million tonnes in 2007/08 from 10 million in 2006.

 

He expected wheat production in 2007 to rise to 47.1 million tonnes from 45.0 million and barley output to slide to 17.9 million tonnes from 18.2 million. The total grain crop could be 81 million tonnes.

 

Russia exports nearly half its wheat to the Mediterranean, with Egypt being the main buyer.

 

In the current season, India bought around 27 percent of Russia's wheat. Russia also exported actively to Bangladesh and the former Soviet Union countries of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Demyanov said.

 

Saudi Arabia bought around 40 percent of all barley exported by Russia, he said.