April 5, 2006

 

Brazil soy registrations at 40.7 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for market year 2006/07 are at 40.7 percent of the estimated 57.6 million tonne harvest as of March 31, compared with 36.5 percent of the 52.6 million tonne soy crop marketed in 2005/06, according to government figures released by the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) on Tuesday (Apr 4).

 

In market year 2004/05, however, Brazil had already promised 77 percent of its 50,085-million-tonne soy harvest to world markets.

 

In their previous report, dated March 15, Abiove said that just over 32 percent of the new soy crop had been registered for exports.

 

The total export registration estimate for March 31 comes out to 10.08 million tonnes compared with 8.06 million tonnes in Abiove's previous report, and ahead of the 8.1 million tonnes registered from the same period in market year 2005/06.

 

Monday's numbers continued to show a significant drop in soybean registrations from the 14.6 million tonnes seen at the same point in the 2004/05 season, when favourable international soy prices, high Chinese soybean demand and a favourable exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar contributed to the soy export market.

 

Abiove maintained its market year 2006/07 soybean export forecast at 24.8 million tonnes. By comparison, Abiove said that roughly 22.3 million tonnes should be exported in market year 2005/06 out of the soy crop Brazil harvested between January to May, 2005.

 

Meanwhile, soymeal registrations for market year 2006/07 rose to 3.5 million tonnes, compared with 2.7 million tonnes two weeks ago. In the 2005/06 period, 4.2 million tonnes of soymeal were registered for exports at this time.

 

The trend has been for the Brazilian soy market to export less soybean derivatives as high taxes, logistical problems and a strong local currency has caused Brazilian soymeal to lose market share to Argentina. In market year 2004/05, for instance, Brazil soymeal registrations totalled 5.8 million tonnes at this time.

 

Abiove maintains its market year 2006/07 soymeal export total of 13.4 million tonnes once again, compared with the 13.9 million tonnes Abiove expects will be exported in the 2005/06 market year.

 

Soyoil export registrations to March 31 rose 643,000 tonnes compared to 546,000 tonnes registered on March 15, Abiove reported. Soyoil export estimates have pulled back again from the market year 2005-06 registrations of 685,000 tonnes.

 

Exports for soyoil for market year 2006/07 are still put at 2.45 million tonnes, down from the 2.5 million tonnes expected to end market year 2005/06. The number is equivalent to the 2.44 million tonnes exported in market year 2004/05.

 

Abiove maintains its harvest year 2005/06 soy crop at 57.6 million tonnes.

 

All told, Brazil's soy crush should rise by 200,000 tonnes to 29.7 million tonnes. Soy crush totals have slowed over the last two years. In market year 2001/02, Brazilian soy crushers processed some 22.7 million tonnes of soybeans, rising to 25.8 million in 2002/03 and 27.7 million in market year 2003/04.

 

Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer after the US.