April 4, 2005

 

January-March US commercial pork output possibly a new record

 

 

First-quarter US commercial pork production possibly set a record high, based on preliminary slaughter and carcass weight data.

 

Bob Brown, Edmond, Okla.-based private market analyst, projects Q1 US commercial pork production at 5.144 billion pounds, up 0.3 percent from the current record of 5.130 billion reached last year. Brown's estimate is based on commercial hog slaughter being down 0.7 percent from a year ago but that being offset by average carcass weights up 0.9 percent.

 

The US Department of Agriculture reported January commercial pork output down 3.1 percent from a year ago, but February production was up 3.7 percent.

 

March hog slaughter, based on the first two weeks of actual data and the last two week's estimates, appears to have been down slightly from last year. However, carcass weights are up due to a combination of good growing conditions for the hogs and cheap feed costs, which should put March pork production even with to slightly above a year ago.

 

That should put commercial pork production for the quarter just over last year's January-March output to set a record, Brown said.

 

The USDA's national average base prices in the afternoon reports for Monday through Thursday averaged $65.12 per hundredweight, up $1.92, or 3.0 percent, from a year ago. The pork carcass composite value through the first four days this week averaged $71.07, up $0.53, or 0.8 percent, from a year ago.

 

Strong domestic and export demand helped keep hog prices at profitable levels for producers over the last 12 months. Market analysts predict prices will remain at profitable levels at least through the summer and early fall.

 

Cattle/hog slaughters

 

USDA estimated this week's cattle slaughter at 566,000 head, compared with 572,000 a week ago and 573,000 a year ago. Cattle slaughter for the year to date is 7.568 million, down 4.7 percent from a year ago.

 

Hog slaughter for the week was estimated at 1.974 million, versus 1.955 million a week ago and 1.930 million a year ago. The year-to-date hog slaughter was estimated at 25.799 million head, down 1.6 percent from a year ago.

 

Total meat production

 

The USDA estimated total beef, pork and lamb production for the week at 831.2 million pounds, compared with 833.1 million last week and 810.1 million a year ago.

 

Young chickens slaughtered under USDA inspection for the week totalled 153.430 million head, compared with 151.161 million a week ago and 152.052 million a year ago.