April 3, 2012

IGC sees global corn crop up in 2012/13

Surpassing demand for the first time since the 2008/09 season, global corn production is projected to rise to a record 900 million tonnes in 2012/13, the International Grains Council said on Monday (Apr 2).

The IGC, in a monthly report, also cut its forecast for the global corn stocks at the end of the 2011/12 season following a lower-than-expected estimate for US inventories issued by the USDA on Friday (Mar 30).

"The supply and demand outlook for corn is projected to remain quite tight in 2012/13 but a large crop, including a major upturn in the US, is expected to be not entirely absorbed by demand, leaving room for a modest rise in stocks," the IGC said in a monthly report.

US farmers will plant the most corn in 75 years to cash in on higher prices, topping expectations due to surprise reductions in soy and spring wheat sowings, according to a US government report on Friday.

The IGC forecast corn stocks at the end of the 2012/13 season would rise to 129 million tonnes, up from a downwardly revised estimate 2011/12 closing stocks estimate of 122 million but still below the preceding season's 133 million.

"Global stocks are projected to increase modestly as a rise in the US more than offsets declines in China and Brazil," the IGC said.

Corn consumption in 2012/13 was seen rising by around 2.2% to 893 million tonnes with growth slowing following a 3.7% climb in 2011/12.

"Growth in industrial use is likely to be slower than in recent years: starch production in China will increase further, but US ethanol production is forecast to dip because of stalling domestic and export demand," the IGC said.