April 3, 2009

US soy exports are projected for a record 1.225 billion bushels in 2009-10, the Agriculture Department chief economist Joe Glauber said on Wednesday (Apr 1) in an analysis of corn, wheat and soy shipments.

Glauber indicated a soy crop of a record 3.2 billion bushels, corn of 12.2 billion bushels and wheat of 2.1 billion bushels.

He said that US soy exports are projected to end stocks with 311 million bushels, well above the 210 million bushels forecast for 2008-09.

He also said prices are projected to decline to US$8.50 per bushel, the lowest since 2006-07, adding that increased production would mean a 7 percent increase in the US soy supply from 2008-09, and soy crush rising to 1.675 billion bushels.

USDA will make its first forecast of the wheat crop in May and of the corn and soy crops in August.

Corn output is projected up 1 percent from 12.1 billion bushels in 2008, while feed use declines 2 percent as livestock numbers fall, making more grains available for distillers.

The economist said that rising mandates for ethanol use are expected to support corn demand and prices in 2009-10 and some 4.1 billion bushels of new crop corn will be needed for ethanol. Exports are expected to go up 9 percent in 2009-10. Ending stocks decline from 2008/09, with an average farm-gate price of corn US$3.80 a bushel, down US$0.30 from 2008-09.

With smaller plantings, wheat output will fall by 15 percent from the 2.5 billion bushels grown in 2008, with ending stocks climbing slightly from 2008-09. Exports are projected down 3 percent with an average farm-gate price of US$5.10 a bushel, down US$1.70 from 2008-09, due to large global wheat supply.

High feed prices and weaker demand due to recession will result in a 2-percent decline in meat production in 2009 and a 0.8-percent decline in milk output. Beef production down 1 percent, pork down 1-2 percent, broiler meat down 3 percent and turkey down 4 percent. Fed cattle will be US$6 per 100 pounds lower and hogs down US$1 in 2009, while turkeys would be US$0.02 per pound lower and broilers up US$0.03 per pound.