April 1, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Review on Friday: CBOT soy, products end weak on USDA data

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures settled lower Friday, with bellwether May setting a near four-month low late in the day on a bigger-than-expected 2006 U.S. soy plantings estimate and record U.S. soy stocks, brokers said.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's 2006 U.S. soy plantings estimate was 76.895 million acres, and U.S. March 1 soy stocks were at a record 1.669 billion bushels.

 

"It was easier to pick the Final Four this year than to pick USDA acreage," said Vic Lespinasse, a CBOT grain analyst at AG Edwards & Sons, referring to the last stages of the current NCAA basketball tournament.

 

Forecasts for more U.S. Midwest rains in early April ahead of U.S. soy plantings and an accelerating South American soy harvest also weighed on CBOT soy futures, while gains in CBOT corn on heavy volume somewhat limited losses, brokers said.

 

CBOT May soybeans ended down 16 1/4 cents at US$5.71 1/2, well below the 10-day moving average of US$5.78 1/2 per bushel, after falling to a near four-month low of US$5.70 3/4 late in the day.

 

Chart support for CBOT May soybeans was seen at the Dec. 8 low of US$5.70 and the Dec. 7 low of US$5.66 1/4 per bushel.

 

New-crop November soybeans ended down 12 3/4 cents at US$6.02 3/4 per bushel.

 

In Friday's CBOT soybean futures pit trading, commercials were net sellers and funds were sold at least a net 4,000 to 5,000 lots, brokers said.

 

Commercial ADM sold a net 400 May; Bunge Grain traded 300 May; and FC Stonnee bought 400 July and sold 300 May, they said.

 

UBS bought 2,000 May; Rand Financial sold 3,000 May and bought 300 July; ABN Amro sold a net 900 May and bought 100 July; JP Morgan sold a net 700 May; and Fimat bought a net 200 May and 400 July, brokers said.

 

In CBOT soybean spread trading, ADM spread 1,000 May/Jly; Fimat spread 600 May/July; the Refco division of Man Financial spread 800 November/July; and ABN spread 500 July/May, they said.

 

In Friday's CBOT soybean options trade, Tenco Inc. bought 3,000 May US$5.60 put options, brokers said.

 

In South American soy news, Argentina's farmers had harvested 19% of the 2005-06 soybean crop by Thursday, the Agriculture Secretariat reported. That put the collection pace up from 9% a week ago but down 1 percentage point from a year ago.

 

Argentine farmers are progressing quite quickly, given that area this season is almost 800,000 hectares bigger than that of the previous year.

 

The average yield across Argentina last week was 2.5 tonnes a hectare, up from 2.11 tonnes a week ago but down 17.5% from a year ago, when excellent weather lifted yields, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.

 

The Argentine Secretariat has forecast output this season at a record 39.5 million tonnes, up from last year's record 38.3 million tonnes.

 

CBOT South American soybean futures also settled weak Friday. The CBOT SAS May futures settled down 16 1/4 cents at US$5.92 3/4.

 

In U.S. soybean cash news, U.S. midday cash soybean Gulf barge bids for April fell 4 cents per bushel, sources said.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

CBOT soymeal ended weak Friday, with the nearby five CBOT soymeal contracts down US$4.50 to US$4.90 per tonne.

 

In CBOT soymeal trades, funds sold at least 3,000 lots, brokers said.

 

Fimat bought a net 1,600 May; Citigroup bought 800 July and 100 May; Rand Financial sold 900 May; Man Financial sold 500 May and 100 December; and Calyon Financial sold 500 May, brokers said.

 

Commercial ADM bought 200 May, while Bunge Grain sold a net 300 May, brokers said.

 

Spot midday interior U.S. cash high-protein soymeal basis offers firmed 1 cent in four of seven surveyed locations on Friday, cash sources said.

 

CBOT soyoil futures also closed lower Friday, with the nearby five CBOT soyoil contracts down 0.16 cent to 0.38 cent per pound.

 

In Friday's CBOT soyoil trades, funds were net sellers while commercials were net buyers.

 

Bunge Grain bought 500 May; ADM traded 100 May; Tenco Inc. bought 1,700 July and 1,500 December; Rand Financial bought 500 July and sold 400 May; Goldenberg Hehmeyer bought 400 July and sold 100 May; and Citigroup sold 600 July, brokers said.

 

CBOT May oil share ended Friday at 39.49% and the May crush was at 63 1/4 cents.