Argentina's 2010 soy outlook hikes

 

 

The 2010 soy crop in Argentina is likely to rise to 53.3 million tonnes from 32 million tonnes in 2009, up 1.3 million tonnes from the previous estimate on March 2, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (March 31).

 

It also raised its forecast of Brazil's 2010 soy crop to 66.0 million tonnes, a more moderate rise of 0.5 million tonnes from its previous forecast and up from 57.5 million tonnes last year.

 

"A record oilseed crop will be produced in Argentina this year due to abundant and timely rainfall in most parts of the country in January-March 2010," Oil World said.

 

Argentine farmers had planted 18.9 million hectares of soy for harvesting in early 2010, up from 17.5 million hectares in last year's drought-reduced harvest, it estimated. Crop disease, especially the Asian Rust fungus, means Brazil's soy crop was not facing quite such a large rise as in Argentina, it said.

 

However, the crops may not prevent quite as large a threat to US exports as had been thought, due to strikes which have held up exports of oilseeds, vegetable meals and oils, and most facilities in three ports in Argentina's Santa Fe state.

 

Some 5,000 trucks are reportedly waiting to unload crops in the San Martin area because of the strike, called by port workers in support of demands for a doubling in wages.

 

Furthermore, Brazil's crop has been held up by squeezes on transport facilities, with lorries reported last month to be queuing 25 miles to deliver to the railhead at Alta Araguaia in Mato Grosso state.

 

Brazil's exports of soy and producers were showing only a slow increase, owing to logistical bottlenecks, the analysis group said.

 

"World demand for US soy - probably also for soymeal - may be higher than expected in the first half of April due to export delays in South America," it said, noting that the global market is in transition from scarcity to ampleness of soy as a result of the record crops in South America.

 

The global 2009-10 soy crop is forecast by Oil World to rise 44 million tonnes on the year to 255.5 million tonnes, largely due to the sharp increase in Argentina. This would be above Oil World's forecast 2009-10 season consumption of 234.4 million tonnes, up 9.9 million tonnes on the year.

 

Global 2009-10 season ending soy stocks were forecast by Oil World to increase by 21.1 million tonnes on the year to 68.1 million tonnes.