March 31, 2009
Tuesday: China soy futures settle up; USDA report already priced in
Soybean futures traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Tuesday, as recent market declines have already priced in the likely bearish U.S. Department of Agriculture report to be issued overnight.
The benchmark September 2009 soybean contract settled RMB12 a metric tonne higher at RMB3,530/tonne, or up 0.3%.
But trading was very light as traders stayed on sidelines ahead of the USDA's prospective planting and quarterly grain stock reports, scheduled to be released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).
"The market has long been expecting an increase in soybean acreage (in the U.S.), and the negative impact was fully reflected in the recent falls," said Gao Yunyue, an analyst at Zhejiang Dadi Futures Brokerage.
Gao expects soybean prices to recover somewhat on bargain-hunting after the report is published, as final acreage is still subject to weather changes, and demand in China remains supportive.
But other analysts said even if there is a rebound, it is unlikely to be strong due to lack of positive factors.
The ending of a strike by Argentine farmers on Friday, the poor economic outlook and weakness in crude oil are all reasons to cap any gains, they said.
Trading volume of all soybean contracts declined to 185,702 lots from 201,300 lots Monday.
Open interest fell 8,472 lots to 320,544 lots Tuesday.
Corn futures settled almost unchanged, while soymeal futures, soyoil futures and palm oil futures all settled higher.
Following are Tuesday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne for benchmark contracts and volume for all contracts in lots (One lot is equivalent to 10 tonnes):
Contract Settlement Price Change Volume
Soybean Sep 2009 3,530 Up 12 185,702
Corn Sep 2009 1,697 Up 1 75,456
Soymeal Sep 2009 2,656 Up 15 964,292
Palm Oil Sep 2009 5,458 Up 58 219,014
Soyoil Sep 2009 6,304 Up 16 600,196
