March 31, 2008

 

Asia Grains Outlook on Monday: Soybean prices may fall on USDA report

 

 

Soybean prices may fall in the week ahead as Monday's U.S. Department of Agriculture's planting report is likely to indicate increased U.S. planting of soybeans this year.

 

Sharp gains in soybean prices since last year are likely to motivate more U.S. farmers to grow the crop this year.

 

The average response to a Dow Jones Newswires survey Friday pegged U.S. acreage this year at 71.5 million acres (28.9 million hectares), up from the 2007 soybean area of 63.6 million acres.

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell sharply in trading Friday, but prices were up in electronic trade Monday, possibly due to bargain hunting. At 0720 GMT, the May soybean contract was up 25 cents at US$12.92/bushel.

 

In Asia, Chinese importers booked 5-7 cargoes of soybeans, mostly from the U.S., according commodities analysis firm Shanghai JCI, compared with 2-3 soybean cargoes the preceding week.

 

While China bought a few cargoes from Brazil this week, there were no purchases from Argentina where a farmers' strike has reduced soybean exports sharply.

 

Meantime, global rice prices continue to rise as a number of exporting countries took steps last week to curb rice exports.

 

Vietnam has said it may introduce a rice export tax, while India has raised the minimum export price of non-basmati rice to US$1,000/tonne.

 

Cambodia has banned rice exports for two months, while Egypt has banned them for six months.

 

Rice prices are expected to remain firm over the next quarter. Meanwhile, traders in Thailand said they were keenly eyeing the results of a Philippine 500,000-tonne rice purchase tender, to be concluded April 17, which will give a clearer idea of the level of rice export prices.