March 31, 2008

Goldman Sachs forecasts US 2008 corn acreage to be down 10.2 percent 

Goldman Sachs forecast Friday that US corn acreage will fall 10.2 percent in 2008 to 84.1 million acres, much lower than the average industry estimate.

The USDA is scheduled to release its 2008 US prospective planting report today (March 31, 2008) at 1230 GMT.

A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 22 analysts saw a range of forecasts between 85.7 million and 89.8 million acres, putting the average at 87.387 million. These are all down from the 2007 record corn seedings of 93.6 million acres.

"Due to relative price appreciation, we expect soy and spring wheat will gain land whereas corn and cottonne will lose, contributing to a buildup in soy and wheat inventories and a draw in corn and cotton inventories," said Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimated a 11.9 percent rise in US soy area to 71.3 million. This is more in line with the Dow Jones industry survey that showed an average estimate of 71.526 million acres.
 

US wheat seedings were seen up 7.3 percent at 64.8 million. Goldman forecast spring wheat area to be up 18.3 percent at 15.7 million, winter wheat up 3.6 percent at 46.6 million and others up 16.3 percent at 2.5 million acres.