March 31, 2006

 

US poultry consumption seen slightly affected in case of bird flu

 

 

Domestic poultry demand would not dip much in the event of an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain in US commercial flocks, although foreign countries would restrict their imports, US Department of Agriculture Chief Economist Keith Collins said Thursday (Mar 30).

 

Normally an outbreak of highly pathogenic bird flu in US flocks would not cause any reduction in domestic consumption--poultry demand rose here during years of previous problems with flu diseases--but media attention to the H5N1 strain has caused some public concern, Collins said.

 

"On the domestic side, it ought to be manageable," Collins said, especially if the USDA quickly destroys all of the infected birds. "The US has been incredibly resilient in the face of any kind of animal disease for many, many years."

 

Loss of overseas sales will be harder to prevent, Collins said.

 

"Of course we would immediately lose some exports," Collins said, but hopefully USDA will be able to convince major importers to limit their poultry bans only to the US regions that suffer an outbreak.

 

"If we were to lose 10 percent of our exports, we say that that would probably reduce (US) poultry prices by about 3 percent, which on a US$23 billion (chicken) industry, would be about US$700 million."

 

That's just one of many scenarios, though, Collin stressed.

 

USDA Secretary Mike Johanns and Secretary of Interior Gale Nortonne said last week that the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain will likely be found entering the US as early as this year.

 

"It is critically important for the American public to understand that a detection of this virus in birds does not signal the start of a pandemic among people," Johanns said in an address to the public on March 20.

 

Johanns also stressed that cooked poultry is safe to eat.