March 31, 2006

Slow global demand trims USDA's soy export forecast
 

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed its 2005/06 export forecast in March from 910 million to 900 million bushels as anaemic demand continues to slow this year's export pace, according to an Economic Research Service report it released Mar 21. 

The 2005/06 forecast of soybean crush was unchanged at 1,720 million bushels, with forecast of 2005/06 ending stocks consequently rising to an unprecedented 565 million bushels. 

The improbability of making up a current lag in soybean oil exports led the USDA in March to cut the 2005/06 export forecast to 1,125 million pounds from the previous estimate of 1,350 million. For the end of the current marketing year, an unusually large rise in soybean oil stocks is now forecast at 2,679 million pounds.

The USDA forecast of 2005/06 soymeal exports was raised from 6.6 million to 6.8 million short tonnes, but is still short of the 7.3 million tonnes exported in 2004/05.  Domestic use in 2005/06 was forecast lower at 33.9 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes lower than last month, and just 1 percent higher than in 2004/05. 

For China, final 2005 soybean production was 18.3 million tonnes (up from 17.0 million previously), while rapeseed output was raised to 13.05 million tonnes (from 11.4 million), according to the USDA report. 

Greater availability of domestic crops reduced the 2005/06 forecast of China soybean imports to 27.0 million tonnes, slightly down from the 27.5 million forecast previously. Similarly, China's rapeseed imports are no longer seen capable of rising to the previous forecast of 1.2 million tonnes and are now forecast at 0.4 million.

In the EU-25, rapeseed crushing is projected to go up by 9 percent in 2005/06, to a record 14.25 million tonnes. Conversely, EU-25 soybean imports could decline to 14.4 million tonnes from 15.5 million in 2004/05. Overall consumption of soymeal was forecast slightly lower to 32.5 million tonnes due to increased use of rapeseed meal and sunflowerseed meal.

For the full USDA report, click here.