March 30, 2011

Brazil's soy crop estimates might be sliced again

The current forecasts for Brazil's 2011 soy crop is likely to be cut by up to one million tonnes if rain persists in the country for the next two weeks, Oil World said on Tuesday (Mar 29).

Repeated rain has fallen on Brazilian soy at a highly vulnerable time just as they are being harvested, causing intense concern about crop damage in the world's No. 2 soy producer.

Oil World said on Tuesday it was still using an estimate of 70.5 million tonnes for this year's Brazilian crop, up from 68.6 million tonnes in 2010.

"But additional downward revisions by 0.5-1 million tonnes are considered possible if there is additional damage from the forecast above-normal rainfall in the next two weeks," it said.

In Argentina, drought means the 2011 soy crop is still seen likely to fall to 48.5 million tonnes from 54.2 million tonnes in 2010, Oil World said, repeating its March 1 forecast.

This is below the 48.8 million tonnes forecast by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange and 50 million tonnes seen by Argentina's farm ministry.