March 30, 2011

Demand from China and the EU is likely to boost global soy trade this year by 5.4% to a record high of 97.6 million tonnes, the International Grains Council (IGC) said.

The IGC raised its forecast for global soy trade in the year ending September 30 by 200,000 tonnes in a monthly report for March.

It forecast China's soy imports to rise 6% to 56 million tonnes, or nearly three fifths of global trade, boosted by rapid expansion in the vegetable oil and feed meal sectors.

EU soy imports will likely rise 17% to 13.5 million tonnes, due to tighter availability and higher prices of other alternatives such as rapeseed.

The IGC also raised its estimate for 2010-11 global soy production to 259.1 million tonnes due to improved prospects in South America. Brazil's soy harvest may hit a record high of 70.3 million tonnes this year, and its exports are expected to rise 12% to 32 million tonnes.

Higher exports from Brazil and Paraguay will more than offset a marginal fall in exports from Argentina.

The IGC said global soymeal trade will likely rise 7% to 58.3 million tonnes, boosted by strong import demand in both Asia and the EU.

It forecast soymeal imports by the EU to rise 8.6% to 23.9 million tonnes, and raised its projections for Brazil's soymeal exports by 3% to 13.2 million tonnes.

Global rapeseed trade is estimated to decline 10% to a three-year low of 10 million tonnes, due to weaker demand in North America and Asia, as prices are high compared to soy, the IGC added.