March 30, 2009

Brazil should harvest 57 million tonnes of soy from the 2008-09 crop, agronomists from consulting firm Agroconsult said Thursday (Mar 26).

 

The official estimates, made by the National Commodities Supply Corp. (CONAB), put the crop at 57.6 million tonnes.

 

Private estimates such as one by Cerealpar also put the crop at 57 million tonnes.

 

Agroconsult said Brazil's total soy production is better than its previous expectation of around 55 million tonnes for 2008-09, but below the 59.9 million tonnes in 2007-08.

 

Brazilian farmers had been complaining that lower crop prices, higher costs and razor-tight credit would lead to lower margins as well as an inability to pay debts.

 

Agroconsult director Andre Pessoa said that the situation seems to be normalising and farmers such as in Mato Grosso have been making profits.

 

Pessoa added that with current soy prices and easing of the credit crunch, farmers can start to invest in inputs.

 

As a result, Brazil's area planted with soy could rise to 22 million hectares in 2009-10 from 21.2 million hectares in 2008-09.

 

He warned, however, that if farmers need to use profits to repay debt, this could slow expansion.

 

Agroconsult said Mato Grosso, Brazil's number-one soy-growing state, should reach 17.2 million tonnes of soy in 2008-09, despite farmers using fewer inputs such as fertilizer. Mato Grosso produced 17.8 million tonnes in 2007-08.

 

Rio Grande do Sul, the number-three producer, should see 8.6 million tonnes versus 7.6 million tonnes last year.

 

Rio Grande do Sul's soy crop was planted about 15 days later than normal, which gave the beans time to soak up rain and recover from the drought before the harvest.

 

Brazil is currently harvesting soy and is the number-two producer behind the US.