March 30, 2004

Vietnam To Declare End Of Bird Flu Today

Vietnam will declare itself free from bird flu on Tuesday despite many UN agencies warning against complacency.

Scientists say at least 16 people have died in Vietnam where the disease swept through 57 of its 64 cities and provinces, resulting in the mass cull of some 38 million poultry - 15 percent of the Vietnam's stock.

Bui Quang Anh, director of the Ministry of Agriculture's Veterinary Department, said Monday that a declaration will be made Tuesday afternoon so the country can start "restocking the poultry stock and replanning the poultry industry."

No outbreaks among poultry have been reported since Feb. 26, but international health and agriculture officials say that's no guarantee there won't be a recurrence.

"It's premature but it's a political decision," said Anton Rychener, head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization. "In case there are more outbreaks, which there almost certainly will be, it will undermine the credibility of the government."

The disease ravaged poultry in Asia and jumped from fowl to people in Vietnam and Thailand, killing 24 total. That includes the March 15 death of a 12-year-old boy in Tay Ninh province, which was confirmed as bird flu by the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, but never acknowledged by the government.

Officials from the Ministry of Health said Monday they had not received official confirmation about the cause of the boy's death. Anh shrugged off questions about whether the boy's death was factored into the decision to declare Vietnam bird flu free, saying health officials have been unable to determine the form of transmission.

World Health Organization officials also received no official word on the boy's death, and cautioned Vietnam not to be hasty about sending out a potentially damaging message.

"It's one thing to declare no active outbreaks, but ... when is it safe to start (restocking)?" asked Peter Horby, WHO epidemiologist in Hanoi. Restocking "potentially is calling for outbreaks to start up again," he said.

Horby said he hopes Tuesday's announcement is prefaced with caution.

"One would hope the announcement is strongly couched in caveats and warnings around the potential for recurrence of avian influenza, and encouraging careful restocking and vigilance," he said.

Forty-two out of Vietnam's 57 cities and provinces where bird flu outbreaks were reported have declared themselves free from the disease. The remaining 15 have met all the conditions and are expected to make similar announcements, Anh said.