Spain's barley harvest may fall 40%

 

 

Even as output hopes are rising from other European countries, thanks to higher-than-expected spring plantings, the drought-hit barley harvest of Spain may head for a 40% drop, analysts have warned.

 

Market forecasts for Spain's barley harvest, which at some 8.3 million tonnes last year accounted for 20% of total EU output of the grain, have fallen below five million tonnes for 2012, RMI Analytics said.

 

"The situation in Spain has continued to deteriorate," the malting barley consultancy said. "There has been some rain recently, but much more will be needed to improve or even stabilise the situation."

 

Spain's barley harvest is a particularly sensitive market topic given the country's reliance on imports of the grain, and wheat, for animal feed.

 

Indeed, Spain's imports of barley for 2012-13 have been pegged at 1.6-1.8 million tonnes, which would be equivalent to about 10% of world trade.

 

On Monday (Mar 26), European Commission officials highlighted the extent of the drought, which has affected much of Western Europe, but the Iberian peninsula, and parts of North Africa, particularly.

 

 "A severe rain shortage has been observed since December in Spain, Portugal and Morocco, the driest period in our climatological record for southern Spain," the commission said, in comments, which contrast with improved hopes for winter crops in the US.

 

"The cumulated average precipitation deficit since October 1 [has reached] 300mm for Portugal and 155mm for Spain," levels approaching those of "the most extreme years".

 

However, the commission was more downbeat over prospects for Spanish durum than barley, forecasting that the country's average yield of the pasta wheat at 1.69 tonnes per hectare, a drop of 30%.

 

"Due to the drought in the main durum wheat producing regions in Spain full yield potential can no longer be reached even if the remaining weeks of the growing season are beneficial."

 

The soft wheat yield was pegged at 3.3 tonnes per hectare, a 10.5% decline year on year.

 

RMI's comments came as it revised its earlier forecast for EU sowings of spring barley, a big source of malting barley, by 300,000 hectares to 7.7 million hectares.

 

The upgrade, which put a 12% on-year increase in sowings on the cards, reflected uprated ideas of the extent of damage to winter crops, largely in France, from winterkill, as revealed by analysts such as Strategie Grains and Offre Demande Agricole so creating more area for spring reseedings.

 

France, where spring barley sowings had appeared set for a small decline, now looked on course for a 30% increase to 640,000 hectares.

 

"It has become obvious that the spring barley acreage in Europe will be extended far beyond the original expectations made at the beginning of the year," the Swiss-based group said.