March 29, 2012

Russia may export 27 million tonnes grain this season

Russia could export almost as much grain in the coming crop year or even match 27 million tonne level forecast for 2011/12, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday (Mar 28).

Russian grain exports are expected to reach between 25-27 million tonnes in the 2012/13 crop year, Putin said during a meeting on spring sowing on Wednesday. Putin said the crop would likely be flat compared to 2011/12 level, when it stood at around 94 million tonnes.

Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, who is in charge of agriculture, reiterated a forecast of 26-27 million in for the current agricultural year, during which the country has been exporting at record rates.

"And if we are able to reach these volumes (in 2011/12), and I think it's absolutely achievable, we will become the second-largest wheat exporter in terms of volumes after the US," he said during the meeting in Voronezh, Russia. Russia's agriculture ministry said recently it expected grain exports to decline to 25 million tonnes in 2012/13.

SovEcon agricultural analysts said that Russian grain exports could exceed official estimates of 27 million tonnes in 2011/12 as ports thaw and return to normal operations, new export outlets emerge, state stocks are sold and demand from Iran continues.

Meanwhile Russian wheat export prices declined further last week on the back of weak demand and competition from neighbouring Kazakhstan, analysts said on Monday.

Some analysts have expressed concern that poor autumn and winter crop conditions in Russia's key southern wheat export regions had threatened yields and could reduce Russia's export potential in the coming crop year.

Zubkov added that 94% of country's winter crop is in good condition, more than in previous years. Total area sown to spring grains will reach about 51 million hectares this year, about 300,000 hectares more than last year, Zubkov said.

The total sown area, including winter grains, will reach 78.3 million hectares, up 2.5 %, he said.