Ukraine winter grain benefits from higher temperatures

The warmer weather in Ukraine is likely to save a large area of winter wheat damaged by ice and the area that has to be re-seeded might not exceed the average annual level.

Deputy Farm Minister Serhiy Ryzhuk said a gradual melting of the ice had prevented serious losses of winter crops. "The situation is improving slightly and the area of winter wheat that should be re-seeded this spring will not exceed the average level of 10 %," Ryzhuk said.

Ukraine is located in a high-risk zone for crops in Eastern Europe with fluctuating temperature patterns making weather a major factor in annual yields.

Analyst UkrAgroConsult said last week that frost and ice had hurt Ukrainian winter grain and the area under crops in good condition had fallen as of mid-March. The consultancy said farms had lost 2.2% of the sown area while another 13% of the area was in poor condition.

Farm minister Mykola Pryshyazhnyuk said this month that frosts and ice were likely to kill at least 10-15 % of winter wheat.

Ice killed off about one million hectares of winter crops in the 2007-08 season in Ukraine, causing wheat production to fall to 13.7 million tonnes. Ukraine harvested 24.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2008 and 20.8 million in 2009.

"The situation with ice is also not as serious as before and the damage area might not be dramatic", Ryzhuk said.

Farms are likely to sow 6.9 million hectares to wheat in 2010 including 6.67 million of winter wheat. Analysts said the wheat yield could fall to 2.82 tonnes per hectare in 2010 from 3.15 tonnes in 2009.

Ryzhuk said the ministry still forecast a 2010 grain crop at a level "close to the 2009 harvest" as lost winter grain area would be re-seeded with strongly-performing late grains like corn.