March 29 2004

Brazil's 2003-04 Soy Crop Estimates Lowered

Brazilian agriculture consultancy Safras e Mercado cut its estimate of Brazil's 2003-04 (October-September) soybean crop to 52.28 million metric tons from its previous forecast of 56.57 million tons due to poor crop weather and Asian rust fungus attacks.
 
With the losses mounting, output will now only be marginally higher than the record 51.42 million tons produced last season.
 
Safras' forecast is much lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture figure of 59.5 million tons but in line with recently released local estimates. On Thursday, the local AgRural consultancy forecast a crop of 52.02 million tons, while U.S. multinational Cargill is estimating output at 52 million to 54 million tons.
 
"The estimate cut was even deeper than in the last report (released Feb. 20), with additional losses of over 4 million tons. And (the losses) only weren't worse because area was revised upward," said Safras' soy analyst Flavio Franca Jr., in a report.
 
He raised the soybean area projection to 20.99 million hectares for 2003-04, up from the February estimate of 20.85 million hectares and the 18.31 million hectares planted in 2002-03.
 
Franca said the crop outlook had improved since February in parts of the center-west and the northeast but had deteriorated in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina and, principally, Rio Grande do Sul due to a lack of rain.
 
He added that further losses could be suffered in Rio Grande do Sul as 30% to 40% of the crop remains in the key flowering and pod-filling phases.
 
Mato Grosso, the No. 1 soybean state, will see production rise to 15.20 million tons, unchanged from the February estimate and up 21% from the 12.60 million tons produced the year before.
 
In the No. 2 state of Parana, output is now seen reaching 10.15 million tons, down from the February figure of 11.00 million tons and down 7% from the 10.95 million tons produced last year.
 
Rio Grande do Sul state is pegged to produce 6.80 million tons, sharply down from a February estimate of 9.45 million tons and also 28% lower than the 9.50 million tons produced the year before.
 
Average yield is seen falling to 2,491 kilograms per hectare from 2,808 kilograms last season.