March 28, 2008

New Zealand beef slaughter estimates down at 5 percent

The US Department of Agriculture has revised its slaughter projections for New Zealand at 5 percent lower which is seen to affect last year's overall beef exports which are also revised  downward by 9 percent.

The USDA states that drought on the North and South Islands, which was more severe than originally expected, are major factors accounting for the decline in both slaughter rates and exports as underweight animals were withheld from slaughter.  Another contributing factor is that not as many dairy cows were culled as usual as many farmers were building up their dairy herds to take advantage of high world prices.  To reflect these factors, ending inventory estimates have been revised upward by 3 percent and will likely increase further in 2008.

The USDA is also revising cattle slaughter in 2008 downward from the original estimate by 5 percent, which is a 2 percent from last year. This is due to the lowest bull kill in several seasons, which is offsetting the increase in the slaughter rate of steers.  The calf kill is also forecast to be up this year because as more male calves will be produced from the dairy herd.  Likewise, the cow kill is predicted to be up 2 percent based on an expected upturn in the fourth quarter as some of the dairy cows retained over the previous season reach the end of their productive life and are culled. 

Due to the trends in slaughter, the USDA's export estimate for New Zealand is on the downward trend and exports are now forecast to be just 1 percent from last year.

  PSD Table

  Country  New Zealand

  Commodity Animal Numbers, Cattle                                                                  (1000 Head)(Percent)