March 28, 2006

 

Brazil's soy registrations at 32.5 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for market year 2006/07 are at 32.5 percent of the estimated 57.6 million tonne harvest as of Mar 15, compared with 24.7 percent of the estimated 52.6 million soy crop that was registered at this time in market year 2005/06, according to government figures released by the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) on Monday (Mar 27).

 

In market year 2004/05, however, Brazil had already promised 61.9 percent of its 50,085 million tonne soy harvest to world markets.

 

In their previous report, dated Feb 28, Abiove said that 26 percent of the new soy crop had been registered for exports.

 

The total for March 15 comes out to 8.06 million tonnes, compared with 6.4 million tonnes in Abiove's previous report, and well ahead of the 5.5 million tonnes registered from the same period in market year 2005/06.

 

Monday's numbers continued to show a significant drop in soybean registrations from the 11.7 million tonnes seen at the same point in the 2004/05 season, when favourable international soy prices, high Chinese soybean demand and a favourable exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar contributed to the soy export market.

 

Abiove maintained its market year 2006/07 soybean export forecast at 24.8 million tonnes. By comparison, Abiove said that roughly 22.3 million tonnes should be exported in market year 2005/06 out of the soy crop Brazil harvested between January to May 2005.

 

Meanwhile, soymeal registrations for market year 2006/07 rose roughly 750,000 tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes. In the 2005/06 period, 3.4 million tonnes of soymeal were registered for exports at this time.

 

The trend has been for the Brazilian soy market to export less soybean derivatives as high taxes, logistical problems and a strong local currency has caused Brazilian soymeal to lose market share to Argentina. In market year 2004/05, for instance, Brazil soymeal registrations totalled 4.8 million tonnes at this time.

 

Abiove maintains its market year 2006/07 soymeal export total of 13.4 million tonnes once again, compared with the 13.9 million tonnes Abiove expects will be exported in the 2005/06 market year.

 

Soyoil export registrations to March 15 rose roughly 100,000 tonnes to 546,000 tonnes, Abiove reported. Soyoil export estimates have pulled back again from the market year 2005/06 registrations of 591,000 tonnes.

 

Exports for soyoil for market year 2006/07 are still put at 2.45 million tonnes, down from the 2.5 million tonnes expected to end market year 2005/06. The number is equivalent to the 2.44 million tonnes exported in market year 2004/05.

 

Abiove maintains its harvest year 2005/06 soy crop at 57.6 million tonnes, after raising unexpectedly two weeks ago by 500,000 tonnes. All other estimates for the 2005/06 crop, both private and public, have been revised downward because of isolated weather problems and numerous cases of Asian soybean rust, a plant fungus.

 

Brazil is the world's second biggest soybean producer after the US.