March 27, 2014

Forecast raised for UK wheat and corn imports in Jul 2013 - Jun 2014 

Forecasts for wheat and corn imports in the UK were raised for the July 2013-June 2014 season, reflecting the faster-than-expected pace during the first few months.

Wheat imports were expected reach 1.80 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 1.63 million, according to official government supply and demand projections prepared by the Home-Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA).

Imports surged in the early months of this season as millers looked to overseas supplies as the UK harvested its smallest wheat crop in more than a decade. However, the country's 2013 wheat harvest turned out to be a much better quality than the previous season, thus a higher proportion was suitable to be used by millers and imports are currently beginning to slow down.

"The price competitiveness of imported milling wheat has been a factor, especially in the north of the country," the HGCA said in notes accompanying the data.

The UK imported a total of 2.94 million tonnes of wheat in 2012-13 as the latest forecast still represents a 39% decline.

A better quality harvest last summer has enabled millers to switch to using more home-grown wheat this season after major quality problems with the 2012 harvest led to a surge in imports in 2012-13.

In order to reflect the high level of imports seen for the season so far, corn imports were revised up to 2.01 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 1.73 million issued in January.

Corn imports in 2012-13 totalled 1.69 million tonnes, thus the latest projection represents an increase of 19%.

Demand for corn in the UK has been boosted by a drop in prices following last year's huge US harvest. Corn imports for the first seven months of the current season climbed to 1.44 million tonnes, up from 933,006 tonnes in the same period last season.