March 27, 2013

World rapeseed production to increase 2.7% on-year in 2013

International rapeseed output may reach a record in 2013, with improving outlook for crops in Australia, the EU and India, according to forecasting service, Oil World.

World production in the 2012-13 season may reach 62.05 million tonnes, 800,000 tonnes more than previously estimated and 2.7% higher than a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said.

"New-crop prospects are currently favourable" in the EU and the former Soviet Union, Oil World said. "Winter rapeseed plantings were expanded and hibernation was generally very good. If weather remains favourable, we can expect a sizable increase in rapeseed production in the EU and Ukraine."

Oil World boosted its outlook for Australia by 500,000 tonnes to an all-time high of 3.7 million tonnes. EU rapeseed output, the world's largest, will be 100,000 tonnes higher than the previous estimate at 19.24 million tonnes, equal to a year earlier. India's production will be 24% higher than a year earlier at 7.2 million tonnes, according to the report.

World exports of rapeseed and canola in the first half of this year may be 5.58 million tonnes, down from 6.69 million tonnes a year earlier due to lower shipments from Canada, the world's biggest shipper, Oil World said. Global production of rapeseed oil for all of 2012-13 ending in September is forecast at 24.1 million tonnes, higher than previously estimated, it added.

Oil World also raised its production forecast for sunflower seed in 2012-13 to 36.3 million tonnes, second only to last year's record. Sunflower seed oil output may be 13.8 million tonnes, larger than the previous forecast and down from 15.1 million tonnes produced a year earlier.

Palm oil production may reach a record of 55.7 million tonnes in 2012-13, with 27.9 million tonnes from Indonesia, and 19.7 million tonnes from Malaysia, according to Oil World. During the year, palm oil exports will account for 58% of total world shipments of 17 major oils and fats, up from 56% two years ago. Palm oil will make up 90% of the projected demand growth for the sector this season due to insufficient supplies of soy oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and olive oil.

"Palm oil has become the dominant oil in recent years, surpassing soy oil," Oil World said. "The world market will become more dependent on palm oil in the second half of this season, due to reduced supplies of other oils and fats."