March 27, 2012

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop seen dropping at 66.7 million tonnes

As the effects of drought in the southern producer states takes its toll, Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop is seen falling to 66.7 million tonnes from 68 million tonnes forecast in February, crop forecasters AgRural said on Monday (Mar 26).

Drought this season over the South American grain crop in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, which together produce over half the world's soy trade, has raised concerns of falling stocks of the world's most important source of protein.

Yields have been falling consistently in all Brazil's large growing states, with the exception of the No. four producer Goias that got excellent rains this year. Sharp declines were registered in the states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the No. two and No. three soy growers.

The drought that began in November has been particularly acute in those southern states.

Expected average Brazilian yields have fallen to 44.9 (60-kilogramme) bags per hectare from 45.7 bags/hectare in February, the forecasters said. Yields reached a record 51.9 bags/hectare last season.

Area planted reached a record 24.82 million hectares this season.

Harvest has passed the halfway point with 61% of the crop collected, up from 55% the week earlier. The No. one soy state Mato Grosso is nearly the end of harvest already with 93% of its crop collected, AgRural said.

Harvest should wind down in the south in late April to early May.