March 27, 2010

 

CBOT Corn Review on Friday: Modest bounce, but down almost 5% on week

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade corn ended modestly higher Friday in a tepid short-covering bounce to close a bearish week.

 

May corn ended up 1 1/4 cents to US$3.56 1/4 per bushel, but still lost 18 1/4 cents on the week, or 4.9%. July corn closed up 1 1/4 cents to US$3.67 1/2.

 

Prices were higher throughout the session but traded within a tight, three-cent range. A weaker dollar, which retreated as the outlook for the Euro improved, helped support corn and other commodities.

 

Analysts noted short-covering ahead of the weekend and positioning ahead of Wednesday's planted acreage report. A survey of analysts by Dow Jones Newswires shows the average trade guess for 2010 corn acreage is 88.941 million, up from 86.5 million in 2009.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release both the acreage report and a quarterly grains stocks report Wednesday morning before trading opens. Analysts are on average projecting stocks as of March 1 at 7.505 billion bushels, which would be up from 6.954 the same time a year earlier.

 

Warmer weather forecasts for next week in the Midwest are seen as bearish, although some say it's too soon to assume a benign planting season. A couple analysts also noted wetter weather is possible for Easter weekend.

 

"Keep in mind this is not a planting weekend coming up, it's a fieldwork window," said Allendale broker/analyst John Kleist. Analysts have said corn growers are starting behind this year, as many were unable to complete their usual fall fieldwork due to a wet harvest season.

 

Funds bought an estimated 3,000 contracts Friday. AgResource Co. said in a commentary that as March winds down, bulls fear that funds could liquidate commodities "to reposition long in equities." Stocks have outperformed commodities this year, the company noted.

 

CBOT oats futures ended higher Friday. May oats closed up 5 1/4 cents to US$2.12 per bushel and July oats settled up 5 cents to US$2.21.

 

Ethanol futures were up. April ethanol climbed US$0.019 to US$1.553 per gallon and May ethanol settled up US$0.013 to US$1.568.