Australian 2009-10 grain, feed output to rise

The outlook for Australian grain and feed production is on balance relatively optimistic. Wheat and barley production are both expected to increase while sorghum production is expected to decrease, according to a US Department of Agriculture attache report posted Wednesday (March 25) on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.

At time of writing this report, the 2009-10 winter cropping season for wheat and barley has not yet begun with planting expected to run from April through to June depending upon seasonal conditions. The 2009-10 sorghum and rice planting (year begin March 2010) is expected to commence later this year beginning in October and November depending on seasonal conditions.

The 2008-09 cropping season was marred by incredibly dry conditions in the critical period of September and October damaging many winter cereal crops. However, above average rainfall in November and December greatly boosted prospects for summer crops. Moreover, this rainfall has created more confidence for crop producers generally with the return of normal weather patterns following prolonged and severe drought.

The outlook for Australian grain and feed production is on balance relatively optimistic. Wheat and barley production are both expected to increase while sorghum production is expected to decrease. Rice is also expected to increase albeit off record low levels. Post advises that production of all crops is forecast to move toward to the ten-year-average following a long period of low production and high prices.

Exports of Barley and wheat in 2009-10 are also forecast to increase in line with increased production. A lower Australian dollar, which is assumed by post to remain at lower levels to year previous, is also expected to assist export competitiveness.

Imports of rice, which began in larger quantities at the commencement of the drought in 2002-03, are expected to decline in 2009-10. Increased domestic production is expected to displace some imports while a lower Australia dollar is expected to make imports relatively more expensive.

Post has assumed a return to normal weather conditions in 2009-10. This will likely see production of wheat; barley and rice surpass the drought affected levels of year previous. However, such conditions will likely see production of sorghum fall below year previous when above average rainfall was received. Post has generally assumed yields slightly higher than the ten-year-average given the number of severe droughts over the past decade.

The state of Western Australia recently removed its licensing requirements for the export of barley, lupins and canola. This follows a review which found that no benefit existed for maintaining restrictions on international grain marketing.