March 26, 2004

AgRural Lowers Brazil 2003-04 Soy Output Forecast

Brazilian agricultural consultant AgRural lowered its estimate for the 2003-04 soybean crop (October-September) to 52.02 million metric tons in its latest report due to continued hot, dry weather in the south and Mato Grosso do Sul state and wet conditions and Asian rust attacks in the center-west.
 
As a result, output is seen on a par with the 52.03 million tons produced in the 2002-03 season.
 
The latest forecast was 4.4% lower than the 54.43 million tons released 17 days ago.
 
The losses to the Brazilian soybean crop caused AgRural to lower its average yield forecast to 2,485 kilograms per hectare from an initial estimate of 2.843 kg/hectare.
 
Harsh weather conditions will create large yield disparities this year, even within states, said a report.
 
In Rio Grande do Sul, the state sees productivity varying from 800 kg/hectare to 2,800 kg/hectare.
 
Brazil-wide average yield was lowered 126 kg/hectare in the latest report due to the continuing drought in the south of the country.
 
In the center-west region, the problem was Asian rust attacks following the wet weather. However, rust also hurt the south and southeast.
 
The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul was one of the most heavily affected by dry weather over the last two months. The state's production is expected to fall to 7.95 million tons from an initial projection of 10.44 million tons.
 
Parana output is seen limited to 10.30 million tons, down from an initial projection of 11.85 million tons.
 
Production in Mato Grosso do Sul is now seen at 3.927 million tons, down from an initial forecast of 5.130 million tons.
 
Crop losses have been offset by an increase in the projected area this season to 20.94 million hectares.