March 26, 2004

CWB Raises 2003-04 Wheat, Durum, Barley Price Outlook

A weaker-than-anticipated Canadian dollar has allowed the Canadian Wheat Board to raise its monthly price projections for milling quality wheat, durum and barley grown and sold during the 2003-04 crop year, which began August 1, 2003.
 
In its Pool Return Outlook for wheat, the CWB's price expectations for milling quality wheat were raised C$4 to $7 per metric ton compared with the February forecast.
 
Strong global demand for old-crop wheat supplies, a sharp rise in old- crop soybean and corn prices, along with strong commodity fund demand resulted in the firmer PRO values for wheat, the CWB said. However, expected strong competition from Australia and Argentina, along with the prospects for larger crops in Europe, India, Pakistan, Ukraine and Russia were expected to pressure prices in the coming months.
 
Durum PRO values were raised $6 from the February outlook. Tight durum supplies in the U.S. and concerns about dryness in parts of North Africa and Europe were linked to the hike, the CWB said.
 
Feed barley PROs were increased by $2 per ton from the February projection in reaction to the strong U.S. corn market, the CWB said. However, the jump was tempered by only limited old-crop demand and relatively abundant Australian feed barley supplies.
 
PRO values for designated barley were $1 per ton higher than the February estimate. The CWB linked the small increase in the price outlook to the strength in feed grain values. However, the upside was capped by falling European prices due to limited domestic and export demand.
 
The following are the Canadian Wheat Board's Pool Return Outlook detailing estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2003-04 (August-July) crop year, in Canadian dollars per ton, basis in store St. Lawrence/Vancouver.
 

Source: Canadian Wheat Board.