March 26, 2004

IBGE Lowers Brazil 2003-04 Soy Crop Forecast To 56.93 Million MT

The Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, lowered its estimate for the 2003-04 soybean crop (October- September) to 56.93 million metric tons, up 10.5% on the year before, in its latest report Thursday.
 
The government institute's figure was based on a survey conducted in February. As a result, the figures do not take into account the impact of the Asian rust fungus in the center-west and drought in the south of the country, which have prompted many analysts to reduce their estimates in the last two weeks.
 
Local analyst forecasts sit between 52 million tons and 57 million tons.
 
Main corn crop production is seen dropping to 33.97 million tons this season (September-August), down 2.3% from last year.
 
Midcrop corn production is expected to fall marginally to 12.77 million tons this year, down 2.1% on the year before.
 
The estimate was lowered from 34.3 million tons in the last report.
 
Brazil's grain, oilseed and cereal crop is expected to reach 130.45 million tons next year, some 5.9% higher than 2003 levels.