March 25, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Review on Friday: End mixed on technicals, US forecasts

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended mixed Friday on pre-weekend positioning amid a modest fund net short position, on technical sales after resistance held in bellwether May at US$5.81-US$5.82, and on forecasts for precipitation in the U.S. Midwest soy belt next week and in the 6- to 10-day period, brokers said.

 

Forecasts for a record U.S. soy carryover and the building South American soybean harvest also weighed on CBOT soybeans Friday, they said.

 

CBOT May soybeans settled down 1 cent at US$5.73 3/4 a bushel, well below the 10-day moving average of US$5.78 1/4.

 

In CBOT soybean futures pit trade, funds were light net buyers after buying about 2,000 lots by 1330 EST. O'Connor and Co. and the Refco division of Man Financial each bought 500 May; Man Financial, Merrill Lynch and Calyon Financial each bought 400 May, Rand Financial bought 300 May and UBS sold 300 May, brokers said.

 

Friday's CBOT soybean spread trade was modest, with Term Commodities spreading 300 May/July and ADM spreading 100 November/July, 100 September/July and 100 September/August.

 

CBOT April agricultural options expired Friday.

 

CBOT South American soybean futures also ended lower Thursday. The CBOT SAS May futures settled down 1 cent at US$5.95 per bushel.

 

Spot U.S. midday cash soybean Gulf barge bids fell 1 cent on Friday. U.S. interior spot soybean basis bids were mostly firm Friday with this week's receipts at exchange-monitored terminals down 41%, cash sources said.

 

CBOT soy traders said they expected fund spreading and positioning next week into the March 31 government reports.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to report on March 31 its 2006 prospective U.S. spring plantings and quarterly stocks data as of March 1.

 

CBOT brokers said this week they expected the USDA to forecast on March 31 an increase of only 750,000 to 1 million acres to soybeans.

 

Early winter forecasts had called for an increase of 1 million to 2 million U.S. soy acres this spring at the expense of corn, but firming CBOT corn prices at winter-end, bullish ethanol demand and recent U.S. Midwest rains have decreased the estimates.

 

U.S. 2005 soy seedings totaled 72.142 million acres, while the USDA in February at its annual outlook forum estimated 2006 U.S. soybean plantings at 74 million acres.

 

Dow Jones Newswires will release an average of analysts' plantings estimates early next week.

 

Soybeans in the top U.S. Midwest growing states are ideally planted the last week of April through the middle of May. Corn is generally seeded after soybeans in the U.S. Midwest.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

CBOT soymeal futures ended firm Friday, with the nearby five contracts up 50 cents to US$1.40 per tonne.

 

In CBOT soymeal trades, funds were light net buyers after buying about 700 lots by 1330 EST. JP Morgan bought 400 May, while Calyon Financial, Man Financial, Rand Financial and the Refco division of Man Financial each bought 100 May, brokers said. Commercial Bunge Grain bought 200 May.

 

Soymeal spread trade was relatively active, with Tenco Inc. spreading 1,000 May/August, Rand Financial spreading 200 May/July and ABN Amro spreading 200 July/December, they added.

 

Spot midday U.S. cash high-protein soymeal offers were unchanged Friday, sources said.

 

Soyoil futures settled weak Friday, with the nearby five CBOT soyoil contracts down 0.24 cent to 0.31 cent per pound.

 

In soyoil trades, funds were net sellers after selling about 1,000 lots by 1330 EST. O'Connor and Co. sold 500 July, Fimat USA sold 200 July and bought 200 May, Man Financial sold 200 May, while R.J. O'Brien, Rand Financial and Tenco Inc. each bought 200 May, brokers said.

 

Commercials Bunge Grain bought 100 May while ADM bought 200 July, they noted.

 

CBOT May oil share ended Friday at 39.34% and the May crush was at 62 cents.