March 24, 2004

Cargill Reduces Brazil 2003-04 Soy Crop Forecast
 
Cargill's forecast for Brazil's 2003-04 soybean production has been reduced to between 52 million and 54 million metric tons, down from the initial estimate of 60 million metric tons.
 
Cargill director Jose Luiz Glaser said that it will be only possible to know whether the crop is closer to 52 million tons or 54 million tons in the coming weeks as the full extent of damage from irregular weather conditions in the first quarter of the year becomes known.
 
He added that losses will arise following drought in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, while the country's main soy producer, Mato Grosso, will suffer losses due to excess rain over the past month.
 
He added that if the crop is under 54 million tons, then logistics problems will be no worse than last year and could even be better as corn production is expected to be lower this year.
 
Cargill's estimate is well below the 57.7 million tons forecast by Brazil's Agriculture Ministry in February and the USDA's recent estimate of 59.5 million tons.