March 23, 2006
USDA predicts stable domestic soy prices, lower China imports
USDA predicts stable domestic soy prices, lower China imports.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed its 2005/06 export forecast in March from 910 million to 900 million bushels as demand continues to slow this year's export. The 2005/06 forecast of soybean crush was unchanged at 1,720 million bushels. The forecast of 2005/06 ending stocks consequently rose to an unprecedented 565 million bushels. Based on farm prices to date, the US season average was forecast higher this month, to US$5.40-US$5.80 per bushel from the previous US$5.20-US$5.80.
The improbability of making up a current lag in soybean oil exports led USDA in March to cut the 2005/06 export forecast to 1,125 million pounds from the previous 1,350 million.
For the end of the current marketing year, an unusually large rise in soybean oil stocks is now forecast at 2,679 million pounds. Despite the mounting supplies, a recent rally in prices resulted in USDA raising the 2005/06 average price forecast this month from 20.5-22.5 cents per pound to 21.0-23.0 cents.
The USDA forecast of 2005/06 soybean meal exports was raised from 6.6 million to 6.8 million tonnes, but still short of the 7.3 million tonnes exported in 2004/05. Domestic use in 2005/06 was forecast lower at 33.9 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes lower than last month, and just 1 percent higher than in 2004/05.
For China, final 2005 soybean production was 18.3 million tonnes (up from 17.0 million previously), rapeseed output was raised to 13.05 million tonnes (from 11.4 million), and the sunflowerseed crop was increased 0.1 million tonnes to 1.7 million. Greater availability of domestic crops reduced the 2005/06 forecast of China soybean imports to 27.0 million tonnes from the 27.5 million forecast previously. Similarly, China's rapeseed imports are no longer seen capable of rising to the previous forecast of 1.2 million tonnes and are now forecast at 0.4 million tonnes.
|
|
Previous |
Revised March |
Change |
|
Forecast |
Forecast | ||
|
Soy bean exports |
910 million bushels |
900 million bushels |
+1.1% |
|
Soybean crush |
1,720 million bushels |
1,720 million bushels |
0% |
|
Season average/ bushel |
US$5.20-US$5.80 |
US5.40-US$5.80 |
+3.8% |
|
Soybean oil exports |
1,350 million pounds |
1,125 million pounds |
-17% |
|
Soybean meal exports |
6.6 million tonnes |
6.8 million tonnes |
+3% |
|
Domestic use of soybean |
33.7 million tonnes |
33.9 million tonnes |
+0.6% |
|
China soybean production |
17 million tonnes |
18.3 million tonnes |
+7.6% |
|
China rapeseed output |
11.4 million tonnes |
13.05 tonnes |
+14.4% |
|
China rapeseed imports |
1.2 million tonnes |
0.4 million tonnes |
-300% |
|
EU rapeseed crush |
12.97 |
14.25 |
+9% |
|
EU soybean imports |
15.5 |
14.4 |
-6.5% |
Source: USDA March forecast
