March 22, 2004

South Africa's 2003-04 Corn Estimate Up In March

South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee Friday sharply increased its March forecast for the country's national 2003-04 corn crop to 7.45 million metric tons from 6.80 million tons in February.
 
It raised its expectation for white corn to 4.56 million tons from 4.17 million tons and upped its yellow corn estimate to 2.89 million tons from 2.63 million tons.
 
The committee's estimate, its second official production estimate for the season, is sharply higher than analysts forecasts. Most analysts were expecting an estimate of around 7.20 million tons.
 
While the second estimate is 650,000 tons higher than the first estimate, its still well down on 2002-03's actual output of 9.40 million tons.
 
But, if the committee's estimate is accurate, it will calm fears that the country will not be able to meet its domestic consumption needs and export obligations.
 
It is also likely that corn futures on the JSE Securities Exchange will open lower in Johannesburg on Monday.
 
July white corn, the most heavily traded corn future, Friday closed down 10.80 rand ($1=ZAR6.64) at ZAR1,195 rand.
 
Only weeks ago, analysts were warning of a crop of around 6.0 million tons which would have necessitated imports of up to 1.0 million tons.
 
Good rains over the past two months have aided farmers who planted their crops in December, but those who planted earlier have seen their crops badly damaged by heat stress and lack of moisture between October and January.
 
In other summer crops, the committee increased all of its estimates.
 
It said it expects sorghum output to be 243,320 tons compared to its January estimate of 198,200 tons.
 
The sunflower estimate increased to 588,500 tons from 551,425 tons while the soybean forecast rose to 163,285 tons from 146,465 tons.
 
The next estimate of 2003-04 summer crops will be announced on April 20.