March 21, 2006

US broiler exports expected to drop in 2006

US broiler exports in 2006 are expected to be lower than in 2005 because of international bird flu concerns, according to USDA's Mar 17 report on US livestock, dairy and poultry outlook. 

In 2005, Q4 broiler exports were less than the same period in 2004 because of the spread of bird flu. USDA predicts bird flu concerns will cut consumer demand for broilers in the first half of 2006.

US broiler meat production increased sharply in January and is expected to be higher in February. However, there is a slowdown in weekly chick placement that will lead to a slowdown in broiler meat production by the end of Q1 and into Q2.

On cattle and beef, USDA predicts slaughter weights will continue at high levels. This will result in Q1 beef production to be almost 5 percent larger than the same period in 2005. However, retail prices for beef face increasing pressure from pork and poultry supplies.

USDA forecast pork production for 2006 will reach 9.6 million tonnes. US pork exports for January were larger than January 2005 by 20 percent. The biggest markets for US pork in January were Mexico, Russia and South Korea.

Seafood sales are expected to improve with the strong domestic economic growth in 2006. The weak US dollar will also make imports of many seafood products relatively more expensive. Additionally, international demand for poultry products may lessen, causing demand for alternative protein products to increase. This may place upward pressure on seafood prices. 

For the full USDA report, click here.