March 21, 2005

Brazil's 2004/05 grain forecast at 116.6 million tonnes

Brazil's 2004/05 grain crop forecasts is now at 116.6 million tonnes, down 3.2 percent on the government's 120.5 million tonnes forecast.

Researchers confirmed drought losses almost wherever they went, especially in Rio Grande do Sul which has lost 70 percent of its soybean crop.

The drought there is the gravest in 62 years and there are reports of areas with such low yields that harvesting costs would not be covered.

Furthermore 30 percent of the remaining Rio Grande do Sul's soybean crop is poor quality.

"Pods are small, not up to export standard and with low levels of protein. Even the crushers will find it hard to use this product as 15 percent of it is green pods with a high chlorophyll content, which compromises its use in various products," said Andr¨¦ Pessoa, an agronomist and director at Agroconsult.

Agroconsult forecasts average soybean yield in Rio Grande do Sul at 13 60-kilogram bags per hectare, down 44 percent on 2003/04.

The west, southwest, northwest and north of Paran¨¢ have also been hit by drought. The corn mid crop failure rate is forecast at 34 percent.

In Rio Grande do Sul the first crop corn is forecast to fail by 10.5 percent. Losses weren't greater because of these states' tradition of late planting.