March 20, 2007

 

Lower US broiler production expected for first quarter of 2007

 

 

A decline in broiler production for January led to the first-quarter 2007 meat production estimate being lowered to 8.75 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the same period in 2006, according to statistics from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

 

US broiler production in January was down 1.3 percent from the same period last year to 3.01 billion pounds (1.365 million tonnes),

 

The major source of the decline was falling meat yields per bird, down 1.8 percent from the previous year.

 

Total number of birds slaughtered was up slightly from January 2006 to 749 million while total liveweight of broilers at slaughter was up 0.5 percent from the previous year.

 

The second-quarter 2007 meat production estimate was lowered as well, bringing the total yearly estimate to 35.9 billion pounds. (16.28 million tonnes). This is still higher than the 2006 estimate.

 

Broiler meat production for 2006 was estimated at 35.75 billion pounds, a 1.1-percent increase over 2005, according to revised figures from the NASS Poultry Slaughter 2006 Annual Summary

 

The larger production in 2006 was chiefly the result of a 1.8-percent increase in the average weight at slaughter, as the total number of broilers slaughtered declined by 0.2 percent.

 

Weekly chick placements over the last 5 weeks is 1.3 percent lower than during the same period in 2006.

 

Weekly chick placements have been lower than the previous year's for the past six months, but the magnitude of year-over-year declines has been narrowing. Rising prices over the past two months are likely to spur chick production.

 

Broiler prices for the first two months of 2007 are up 16 percent to 72 cents/ pound from the same period in 2006, when bird flu fears were rife.

 

Prices for almost all broiler products have strengthened considerably compared with the last quarter of 2006.

 

Boneless skinless breast meat prices in the Northeast market were up 34 percent from the previous year while prices for ribbon breasts increased 48 percent from same time in 2006 while leg quarter prices were up 55 percent. Only wing prices have shown a decline.

 

With lower broiler meat production forecast for first-half 2007, broiler prices are expected to remain above their year-earlier levels over the next several months.