March 20, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Beans up 1-3 cents on e-CBOT, technical bounce

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to open 1-3 cents a bushel higher Monday on a firmer overnight trade, gains in China soybean futures and as prices bounce from their recent lows, sources said.

On the e-CBOT platform, most-active May soybeans rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.79 and July beans were up 2 1/2 cents to $5.91 1/2. May soymeal was 60 cents higher at $174.40 a short tonne and May soyoil was down 4 points to 23.20 cents a pound.

 

May beans traded to nearly a two-month low last Friday of $5.75 on forecasts for additional beneficial moisture to enter the Midwest and concerns over the spread of bird flu, and prices look to post a technical rebound from that level, sources said. The May contract ended with only slight losses on the day, prompting follow-through buying on Monday.

 

"It looks like we're due for a little bounce in the market today," said a broker at U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

A wintry mix of snow and rain has moved into the Midwest, with 6-12 inches of snow possible in Nebraska and western and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Kansas is also expected to see rain turning to snow, with heavy accumulations possible. The middle Ohio River Valley and the southeastern Midwest will see either snow or rain from this system, DTN Meteorlogix said.

 

U.S. soybean basis levels were mostly steady to a touch firmer in scattered locations.

 

Soybean futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose Monday on news that a government official said there is little possibility of a large-scale bird flu outbreak in China this spring. The benchmark September contract settled RMB19 higher at RMB2,674 a tonne.

 

Beneficial rains in Brazil will help with pod-filling and will ease stress to late-filling soybeans, Meteorlogix said. Heavy showers in Mato Grosso are expected to delay the harvest, however.

SOY PRODUCTS
 

Soy product markets are expected to open mixed, with meal firmer on the higher soybean prices and soyoil steady to weak on lower Malaysian crude palm oil futures.

 

CPO futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange closed slightly lower on lingering concerns over high stocks and slack demand. A strengthening ringgit also weighed on the market. The benchmark June contract settled at MYR1,451 a tonne, down MYR4 from Friday.

 

Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) reported a 4.8% month-on-month decline in exports in the March 1-20 period to 708,345 tonnes. Surveyor Intertek Agri Services pegged exports at 717,915 tonnes, down 5.9% during the period.