March 19, 2012

Russia's WTO accession to boost pork, beef demand

The impending WTO accession for beef and pork in Russia may push up its consumption of the meat in 2012, as reported by the USDA.

Russia is likely to lift restrictions on the EU live swine trade before its WTO accession, following its removal of the tariff rate quota (TRQ) as a means of import substitution at the end of 2011.

With domestic pork production continues to be dampened by the African Swine Fever (ASF) and restrictions against Brazilian pork still in place, Russia will be looking towards the EU, the US and Canada to meet its demand. Depending on whether Russia continues to allow Belarus to export pork above agreed bilateral volumes, demand for pork from these regions may increase further.

Increased live swine and pork imports estimate in 2012 as compared to the previous estimate reflect better market access due to both better TRQs and future sanitary commitments per Russia's WTO Accession. Pre-WTO-accession live swine trade is estimated at roughly 55-60,000 head per month, while post-accession trade is estimated at 100,000 head per month.

On the other hand, beef imports in 2012 are also expected to increase with continued reductions in domestic production and new market access conditions upon WTO accession. As a result, high-quality beef will be provided quota-free access at 15% duty, as defined by Russia's WTO commitments.