March 19, 2009
US beef exports to fall slightly in 2009; imports to increase
The US is expected to export 1.88 billion pounds of beef in 2009, a slight decline from last year, while imports are projected to increase 6 percent on-year.
That is despite total beef exports have been slightly above 2008 levels so far. After a robust third quarter in 2008, a stronger dollar and weakened global demand should prevent exports from reaching the same levels, resulting in a slight decline in 2009 total exports.
Meanwhile, the export trend has shifted. Beef shipments to Mexico have decreased due to the continued depreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar, while exports to Vietnam have increased from last year.
US beef exports have also benefitted from the resumption of trade with South Korea, but shipments are projected to have a difficult time keeping up with last year's pace.
The US is expected to import 2.68 billion pounds of beef this year, with imports from Australia and Uruguay expected to increase as the Russian beef market shrinks.
Cow slaughter in the US is expected to remain high in 2009, which would provide large supplies of processing beef.
Since most imported grass-fed beef is also used for processing, foreign producers with decreased export opportunities may have to either compete with US producers or absorb the output within their own local markets.
