March 19, 2004

South Africa To Raise 2003-04 Corn Estimates
 
Analysts are expecting South Africa's 2003-04 corn crop estimate to be raised by around 5% Friday when the National Crop Estimates Committee announces its second official forecast for the season.
 
Four grain market analysts concurred that the estimate will rise to around 7.17 million metric tons.
 
At its first estimate in February, the committee said it expected white and yellow corn output to be around 6.80 million tons compared to 9.40 million tons produced in 2002-03.
 
February's estimate was the lowest for a decade, but even a 5% increase would lead to the smallest national corn crop since the 1998-99 season.
 
Widespread late summer rain in February and March has brought some relief to late-planting farmers hammered by the driest spring and early summer for twenty years.
 
But it came too late to assist farmers who planted their crops between October and mid-December.
 
Apart from corn, the estimates committee will also Friday give forecasts on sorghum, dry bean, soybean, sunflower and groundnut production.
 
Meanwhile, corn futures are again on the rise after falling on the expectation of a higher second harvest estimate.
 
White corn for July delivery Thursday gained 30 rand ($1=ZAR6.6850) to ZAR1,206/ton while July yellow corn ended up ZAR9 at ZAR1,209/ton.
 
"The stronger tone is largely due to bullish Chicago Board of Trade activity, but I think the market is also taking the view that prices are in an upward trend over the medium term," said a grain trader.
 
"There's been some technical buying of corn futures, but there's also concern about the fundamental supply and demand situation," he said.