March 19, 2004

US Pork Exports See 6% Growth

Pork exports in the United States registered 1.7 billion pounds in 2003, more than 6% of the previous year's total. Japan, Mexico, and Canada together accounted for almost 80 percent of total U.S. pork exports. A lower valued dollar and economic growth created demand for U.S. pork products last year. The same factors, together with disease-related foreign market closures to beef and poultry will likely spur U.S. pork exports this year.

Japan imported more than 790 million pounds of U.S. pork products last year, an increase of more than 2 percent over 2002. Over 50 percent of total U.S. pork exports were sent to Japan, making it by far the largest overseas market for the U.S. pork industry. Last year, a respectable rate of economic expansion and a relatively strong yen likely pushed Japanese pork imports higher. The same factors again favor higher Japanese imports this year. And clearly, the closure of Japanese markets to imports of North American beef and to poultry from AI-afflicted countries creates very strong opportunities for pork exporting countries. The relatively cheap dollar will help to make U.S. pork products especially attractive to Japanese buyers compared with Canadian and Danish products, the other major international products in the Japanese market.

Canada received about 10 percent of U.S. exports last year. U.S. exporters shipped 191 million pounds of pork to Canada last year, an increase of almost 2 percent over 2002. In 2004 U.S. exports to Canada are likely to increase on the strength of the high degree of integration that exists between the Canadian and U.S. pork markets. This factor, together with the lower valued U.S. dollar, creates opportunities for companies to source pork products in the United States for sale in Canada.

After contracting in 2002, Mexican demand for U.S. pork products increased more than 11 percent in 2003. Mexico imported almost 350 million pounds of U.S. pork in 2003, accounting for almost 18 percent of U.S exports last year. A recovering economy largely explains expansion of pork demand in Mexico last year. Because of the positive relationship between economic growth and meat demand in Mexico, strong economic growth prospects for 2004 bodes well for continued expansion of Mexican imports of U.S. pork products.