March 18, 2009

Brazil's 2008/09 soy crop is 36 percent harvested by March 13, 2009, up from 33 percent as a year ago, but forward sales remain far behind last year, analysts Celeres said on Monday (Mar 16).

Brazil's central west, where beans are sown and mature earlier than the rest of the soy belt, was most advanced in the harvest campaign.

Harvesting had progressed 18 percent over the previous week in the main central west soy state of Mato Grosso to 68 percent of its crop, and compares with 61 percent harvested by this time last year.

Over 58 percent of the crop was collected in one of the top soy producer Goias state, also in the central west, which is on par with a year ago.

In the south, where planting and harvest starts later, Brazil's second soy producing state Parana has collected 40 percent of its crop against 30 percent at this time last year, while Rio Grande do Sul, also in the south, has not yet begun harvesting.

The weakened Brazilian currency against the US dollar is keeping domestic prices for soy firm and exports competitive, but forward sales are still 22 percent behind last year's levels.

By March 13, 2009, 37 percent of the crop had been sold, up only one percent from the week prior and well behind the 59 percent sold at this time a year ago.

Analysts said that over the past five years, 53 percent of the crop on average had been sold by this time.

The falling trend in crop estimates over the past months due to the dry weather in the south and in Argentina has created an expectation among producers that supplies would tighten.