March 17, 2014

In the current financial year, Australia's pig prices are expected to rise slightly, but then trend steadily downward out to 2018-19 as imports continue their onslaught on the Australian market.

Over the past year, pig producers have enjoyed a modestly rising market, a respite from the flat market that persisted from 2010-11.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) attributes the recent price increase to lower levels of imports, forecast to drop by 10% in 2013-14, which is largely due to higher pig prices in the US, which is making US producers more focused on their local market.

Imports from Canada and Denmark have remained largely unchanged.

But in the coming financial year, ABARES forecasts that import volumes will continue to increase, rising from 137,000 tonnes in 2013-14 to 165,000 tonnes in 2018-19.

In response to the current import downturn, local production is expected to expand by about 2%, and then return to very modest expansion as import pressures return.

Australian pig meat production is expected to reach 362,000 tonnes in the current year, increasing to 374,000 tonnes by 2018-19.

Local pork consumption, now at about 26 kilogrammes per person per year, is expected to rise by about a kilogramme per person per year over the same period.