March 17, 2010

Late spring may trim Russia's grain harvest

Russia's grain crop could fall by up to 9% in 2010 as the late spring leads to lower winter grain yields and a smaller spring grain area, according to a leading agricultural analyst.

SovEcon CEO Andrei Sizov Sr. said Russia could harvest 88-89 million tonnes in 2010, down from last year's crop of 97 million tonnes. SovEcon's previous forecast for the 2010 crop from November was 90-98 million tonnes.

Sizov said he expected little change to the winter grain area that will survive in 2010. He gave a forecast of 16.35 million hectares, versus 16.7 million hectares a year ago.

"But the long period that winter grain plantings have spent under snow will have a negative influence on their condition. The plantings will be weakened and their yields will be lower," he said.

SovEcon expects winter grains output to decline this year to 40-42 million tonnes from last year's 44 million tonnes.

Winter wheat production could fall to 35.5 million tonnes from 37.7 million tonnes in 2009, Sizov said.

Sizov said a delay of 7-10 days to the start of the spring sowing campaign would prevent farmers from sowing early spring grains, primarily barley. Instead they may favour crops, like oilseeds and sugar beet, which take less time to develop.

SovEcon estimates this year's spring grains area to be between 30 million and 31 million hectares, down from last year's 31.1 million hectares.

SovEcon expects Russia's total wheat output, including winter and spring wheat, to decline this year to 56 million tonnes from 61 million tonnes last year. Sizov did not provide an estimate for other cereals.