March 17, 2009

Philippine government is expecting poultry production to grow faster this year, even as at least one industry group sees dampened demand amid the economic slowdown.

The Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), an agency of the Agriculture department, projects a 5.4 percent output growth this year, buoyed by more chicken layers and breeders, according to BAI director Davinio P. Catbagan.

Data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) show that the poultry sector which accounts for 14 percent of total agriculture output, managed to grow 4.71 percent last year from 0.22 percent in 2007 and a 0.37 percent production decline in 2006.

The department targets a 5.4 percent and 3.6 percent growth this year for production of chicken and chicken eggs, respectively, which account for 95 percent of the poultry subsector.

However, United Broiler Raisers Association president Gregorio A. San Diego, Jr. said the government's 5.4 percent output growth target is too high given low consumption.

San Diego added that there is flat consumption as consumers have less money and is expecting to see no growth in consumption.

He warned that any oversupply could result in lower prices for poultry products, to the disadvantage of poultry farmers.

He also said the industry itself projects less than 3 percent poultry output growth, which would prevent poultry prices from dropping while meeting market demand.

Meanwhile, production of ducks and duck egg will continue to slide because of low demand, high production cost and government restrictions on the transport of ducks.

Catbagan said ducks and duck eggs production would likely decline by 5 percent from last year's 81,680-tonne output worth P2.33 billion (US$48.2 million).

He said that bird flu has been prevented because of this restriction, but has also limited the production of ducks as well.