March 17, 2008

 

ASA weekly: US companies promote use of low linolenic soy

 

Monsanto and Cargill launched a joint recruiting campaign last week to persuade farmers in twelve states to grow low linolenic soy.

 

Monsanto's Vistive-brand low linolenic soy was found to contain less trans fatty linolenic acid than normal soy.

 

Twenty states have proposed the restriction of the use of oils high in trans fats, while 25 municipalities have proposed ordinances or health codes, and two dozen school districts have proposed limiting use of trans fat ingredients or foods served to students.

 

McDonald's, KFC, Wendy's and other restaurant chains are switching to trans-fat-free oil.

 

The premium adds an incentive for growers already watching soaring soy prices.

 

Analysts say high prices, plus the rising cost of producing corn, will prompt farmers to plant more soy this year.

 

US soy complex higher on low dollar, rally in oil and gold

 

US soy complex on March 13 reflected a decline in the US dollar to new lows and a rally in crude oil and gold to new record highs.

 

Soy and soyoil, however, did close near their lows for the day with soy settling single digits higher.

 

In overnight trade, soy did post double-digit gains in all but the March and May contracts with soymeal also higher, but soy oil futures were mostly lower along with Chinese soy oil and Malaysian palm oil futures.

 

March soy futures closed up US$2.94, finishing at US$509.63; May gained US$2.85, closing at US$515.42; and July was up US$3.03, ending at US$521.30.

 

March soymeal increased US$8.27 closing at US$389.11; May was US$6.06 higher, finishing at US$392.42; and July meal closed up US$5.18, ending at US$395.17.

 

March soy oil increased US$9.92 to finish at US$1369.06; May was up US$7.05, closing at US$1379.20; and July was US$8.16 higher, closing at US$1395.95.

 

US senate extends 2002 farm bill to April

 

The US Senate and House on March 12 approved another extension to the 2002 farm bill to April 18 to give farm bill writers still more time to settle issues that have been around for over a year. 

 

The extension provides only 11 additional days when Congress is in session, and three of those in the House have votes beginning after 6:30 p.m. EDT.

 

Senator Chuck Grassley said that in the ongoing negotiations on the next farm bill, there is no dispute that the level of funding will be about US$10 billion over baseline, but there is a dispute over how it will be offset.

 

If correct, the agreement removes one major hurdle facing the legislation that has been under consideration since late last year.

 

Grassley confirmed that it appears that the upcoming farm bill conference will approve a permanent agriculture disaster programme that would meet the requirements of western senators, such as Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus.

 

Meanwhile, House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), House Agriculture ranking member Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), and Senate Ag Chairman Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) said after a meeting last week that they were working on allocating money among the farm bill titles under two different proposals: one based on adding US$10 billion over 10 years to the US$597 billion baseline for the bill and a second without the US$10 billion.

 

The mention of a baseline bill brought a lot of concern that crop insurance funding would be sliced by billions of dollars, and the Commodity Title I funding would be crimped, likely via cuts in direct payments.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,589	174	334	2,264	1,638	2,252	2,578
Production	83,368	86,770	70,605	40,500	47,200	47,000	57,000	59,000	62,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,100	2,200	40	60	100
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,805	32,748	35,600	38,750	28,756	30,500	29,400
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,080	7,130	10,250	10,500	24,770	25,300	30,400
Other	5,288	4,068	4,447	1,475	1,520	1,620	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,656	81,332	41,353	47,370	50,870	56,426	58,734	62,750
Carryout	12,229	15,589	5,025	334	2,264	594	2,252	2,578	1,928
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	1,996	1,696	640	794	766
Production	37,416	39,033	39,448	25,582	27,718	30,425	22,300	23,637	22,755
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	618	645	10,073	11,000	11,220
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,470	24,698	27,400	29,764	12,073	12,665	11,620
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,494	25,272	28,018	30,409	22,146	23,665	22,840
Carryout	285	318	272	1,996	1,696	1,712	794	766	681
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	520	248	300	286
Production	9,248	9,292	9,421	6,169	6,810	7,400	5,521	5,850	5,641
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	9,026	402	600	985	3,172	3,455	3,540
Net exports	507	839	731	5,665	6,177	6,435	2,297	2,409	2,167
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,757	6,067	6,777	7,420	5,469	5,864	5,707
Carryout	1,366	1,317	981	487	520	500	300	286	220

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 06 March 2008
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Belgium	Soybeans	2.70	185.70		Honduras	Soymeal	16.80	70.50
China	Soybeans	71.10	9615.40		Mexico	Soymeal	24.40	518.50
Colombia	Soybeans	3.90	147.80		Nicaragua	Soymeal	1.20	20.00
Cuba	Soybeans	15.00	49.30		Taiwan	Soymeal	0.90	3.20
Egypt	Soybeans	3.70	524.50		Thailand	Soymeal	1.00	11.00
Germany	Soybeans	43.60	855.10		Turkey	Soymeal	8.00	60.40
Greece	Soybeans	18.70	65.80		Venezuela	Soymeal	10.60	164.10
Indonesia	Soybeans	4.10	577.20		Canada	Soyoil	1.30	15.30
Japan	Soybeans	36.10	1523.30		China	Soyoil	3.40	139.00
Mexico	Soybeans	142.20	1890.50		Dom. Rep.	Soyoil	7.00	8.10
Netherlands	Soybeans	8.70	988.20		Hong Kong	Soyoil	5.00	20.20
Singapore	Soybeans	3.00	2.50		Japan	Soyoil	0.60	1.20
Taiwan	Soybeans	32.80	1059.30		Mexico	Soyoil	9.10	70.30
Venezuela	Soybeans	5.00	0.00		Panama	Soyoil	2.60	4.80
Canada	Soymeal	9.70	570.80
Colombia	Soymeal	4.30	180.40		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	30.90	202.30		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
France	Soymeal	4.40	61.40		Soybeans	5,508.70	20,595.10	257.60
Guatemala	Soymeal	22.90	114.80		Soymeal	1,602.40	3,416.50	147.80
Guyana	Soymeal	2.30	2.30		Soyoil	212.80	543.70	29.10