March 16, 2006

Soybean rust, humidity affecting yields in Brazilian state

Excessive rains in February and Asian soybean rust will lower yields on some Mato Grosso do Sul soy farms, Brazilian crop analysis firm AgroConsult said Wednesday (March 15).

Mato Grosso do Sul is Brazil's fifth largest soy producer and is expected to harvest roughly 4.6 million tonnes of soybeans in 2005/06.

AgroConsult began conducting crop analysis on soy farms nationwide on Wednesday.

Fabio Meneghin, an AgroConsult soy specialist, said 10 farms in Sao Gabriel do Oeste, located in the northern part of the state, could see a 10 percent reduction in soy yields because of a combination of soybean rust and excessive humidity.

Meneghin estimates yields between 45 and 50 60-kilogramme bags per hectare, which is bad news for local soy growers in Sao Gabriel who said their production costs were over 55 bags per hectare. In other words, Sao Gabriel farmers paid roughly 1,200 Brazilian reals (US$566) per hectare to produce at least 55 bags per hectare and will end up producing less.

Managers from the 10 farms said they had followed the national trend in reducing fungicide applications and other crop investments by 20 percent in the 2005/06 crop year due to financial constraints.

AgroConsult's national soy crop estimate is the lowest of all current private and public estimates, at 55.3 million tonnes. The highest estimate is for a 58.1 million tonne 2005/06 soy harvest, made by Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp on Feb 6.