March 16, 2004

Brazil Soybean Output Reduced By 4.8 Million Tons Due To Rust And Bad Weather

Brazil's record 2003/04 soybean crop has already lost 4.8 million tons this season due to bad weather and Asian soy rust, crop analysts Celeres said on Monday.

"The losses are already at 4.8 million tons from the potential output of 61 million tons estimated at the start of the season," Celeres said in a weekly soy report that put the current crop output at a record 56.2 million tons.

The analysts said the loss estimate includes both Asian soy rust fungus, which caused 3.4 million tons in losses in the previous crop year according to government figures, and the drought in the south and excess rain in the center-west.

Celeres said Asian rust could cost Brazil's soy sector $2.5 billion in lost soy output, fungicide application and other control measures this season.

But the analysts' report did not seem to take into account the rising international price of soybeans that could offset some of these costs with better export revenues. Chicago soybean futures have been hitting 15-1/2-year highs in recent weeks due in part to concerns about losses to Brazil's crop.

Celeres said 51 percent of the crop has been sold by producers, slightly more than the 49 percent average at this time.

Twenty percent of the crop has been harvested, slightly less than the 23 percent average at this time, and 71 percent of the crop is maturing and should be ready for harvest in the coming weeks, the report added.